New Delhi: India is set to overtake Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy in 2025, according to the latest World Economic Outlook by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The report places India’s nominal GDP at 4,187.02 billion dollars next year, slightly ahead of Japan’s 4,186.43 billion dollars.

The IMF projects India will remain the fastest-growing major economy, maintaining growth above 6 per cent through 2026. Japan, in contrast, is expected to post just 0.6 per cent growth in both 2025 and 2026, with global trade headwinds affecting its export-driven performance.

India’s continued momentum may push it even higher in the global rankings. By 2028, India’s GDP is expected to reach 5,584.48 billion dollars, overtaking Germany and becoming the third-largest economy in the world.

Germany, currently ranked fourth, is forecast to struggle with weak growth. The IMF predicts flat growth in 2025 and only a modest rise of 0.9 per cent in 2026. Germany’s GDP is projected to reach 5,251.93 billion dollars by 2028.

The top two positions remain unchanged. The United States is set to lead with a GDP of 30,507.22 billion dollars in 2025, followed by China at 19,231.71 billion dollars. However, the IMF notes signs of a slowdown in both economies. US growth is expected to ease to 1.8 per cent in 2025 and 1.7 per cent in 2026, while the Euro Area is also forecast to grow by just 0.8 per cent in 2025 and 1.2 per cent the following year.

France is likely to post growth of 0.6 per cent in 2025 and 1 per cent in 2026. Spain, meanwhile, is expected to do better than its European peers with a 2.5 per cent rise in 2025, tapering to 1.8 per cent in 2026. The United Kingdom is forecast to grow by 1.1 per cent in 2025 and 1.4 per cent in 2026.

BI Bureau