New Delhi: Sharing the likely growth scenarios for the Indian economy for this year, Sanjiv Bajaj, president Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), CII expects the GDP growth in a range of 7.4-8.2 per cent in 2022-23, with the outlook critically hinging on the trajectory of global crude oil prices.”

Addressing the media for the first time after taking over as CII president, he further explained that global headwinds and inflation will have to be countered with robust policy reforms, both domestic and external sector reforms, to unlock the growth potential of the economy. Tailwinds that are supportive of growth in the short-term include government capex, private sector investment which is showing an uptick aided by strong demand in some sectors.

An immediate measure to moderate inflation could be to moderate taxes on fuel products, which constitute a large share of the retail pump prices of petrol and diesel. “CII would encourage Centre and State governments to collaborate in reducing these duties,” he added. Spelling out the vision for the economy, Bajaj said that India has the potential to become a $ 40 trillion economy by the time it turns 100, in 2047, with milestones at $ 5 trillion by 2026-27 and $ 9 trillion by 2030-31.

Highlighting the sectoral drivers of growth, Bajaj elaborated that manufacturing and services will be the twin engines of growth. The enabling policies of the government, particularly the PLI scheme, are expected to push the manufacturing sector’s contribution to GVA to 27 per cent by FY48. Similarly, services too will witness its share rising from 53 per cent to 55 per cent in the terminal year.

Expressing his views on the role of industry and CII in taking India to a $ 40 trillion goal post by 2047, Bajaj said that CII believes that there is a lot that industry and CII could do themselves. “We will be setting up a ‘CII Centre for Risk Surveillance’ to monitor and forecast impact of future waves of pandemic, thus enabling preparedness and resilience in growth,” he said. /BI/